Comedian Destroys Wallstreet

Supposedly 90% of mutual funds underperform the S&P 500 over five years (possibly even 99%), and certain academics and math people believe it’s truly impossible for an individual stock picker to outperform the S&P 500 over a long period of time. Regarding Warren Buffett, these math people might argue that someone is bound to outperform, out of pure statistical randomness.

And yet, at the same time, many well known investors (for example Dr. Michael Burry from The Big Short fame) saying that indices like the S&P 500 are currently over-priced”due to the huge increase in passive investing.

So for someone who wants to invest, is it wise to put one’s savings in an S&P 500 index (which is now “over-priced”) or is it wise to pick several mutual funds, which 90% of the time will underperform the S&P 500? It seems like the answer would be neither.

So what is left? This is where I propose, my brand new Joe Z, eZ money portfolio.

That’s right, in the face of all of the odds, not to mention my lack of financial acumen, I will beat the mutual funds and the indices, with my random stock picks…

The reason I’m so brazenly confident is yes, hindsight.

I took a look back at the stocks I wanted to buy in the past but didn’t. In 2006, Google, Chipotle, and Panera Bread were no-brainers, as well as Cracker Barrel (because I lived in the southeast). But as for the first three, all of the experts said, “too expensive” and in regards to Cracker Barrel… well, it just felt stupid. But if I’d trusted the my dumb guy instinct and obvious picks, with zero due diligence, I’d be absolutely killing all the indices and mutual funds:

Since 2006 Google is up 1000%, Chipotle 2700%, Panera Bread 600% (before it got acquired in 2016) and Cracker Barrel 400%. A solid 1200% return vs. the S&P’s 300%.

Of course, I didn’t buy any of these stocks at the time and I know any reasonable person could argue: “Joe you’ve probably conveniently forgotten the companies you liked that have tanked since then,” and you might even say, “But Joe, if you’d bought Chipotle how do we know you would have HELD it all this time?” and to that I say…don’t question hindsight!

I crushed the market! Or, specifically, I did not crush the market, because I didn’t buy anything.

But now I know in hindsight that I’m a genius. And now I’m ready to buy my hunches and—regardless of how “over-priced” experts say they are— and buy and hold them and do nothing, and destroy Wall Street, while proving the academics wrong, all at the same time.

I will come back a year from now (and more importantly, 3 years and 5 years from now) and compare my eZ money portfolio vs. the greatest investors of our time: Warren Buffett (BRK.B), Ray Dalio (Hedge Fund), Cathy Woods (ARKK), Dr. Michael Burry (The Big Short), Mad Money’s Jim Cramer, etc.

So here they are, my picks, that I guarantee will outperform and shock the nation (using the stock prices as of 4 pm, Wed March 24, 2021).

Company (price)

Zoom  (314.96) Investment thesis: Seems obvious. Most experts say the stock is currently “dangerously expensive”.

Etsy (199.18) Um, duh? Etsy is the feel good alternative to Amazon. There is no competition in the $130 home-made rustic glow-in-the-dark bird-feeder e-commerce space. Click a button, send your invisible money to a “small business owner”, and feel vaguely good about yourself. Incredible.

Zillow  (133.22) I have two real estate friends who hate Zillow, while everyone else I know uses Zillow (Zillow also owns Trulia / Street EZ). The real estate agents sound like cab drivers did four years ago, “Those Ubers don’t know how to drive! They have to use GPS! Surge pricing!” Plus I think this year’s SNL sketch sealed the deal for Zillow as a sexy brand.

Amazon (3087.07) They seem like they’re doing well. Also I finally gave up and bought a Kindle. 

Google  (2032.53) Every night before bed, I press play on ten hours of white noise on YouTube, but each time, they first hook me first with twelve other videos, each with its own targeted ad. The robots are getting very good.  Perhaps AI is going to take over the world by hooking us so hard to our devices that we don’t notice the robots right behind us, out in the world, smelling the roses, making art, and living their best non-lives.

Apple: (120.09) We seem to buy their products a lot.

Netflix (520.81): Sorry to be so obvious again, WALLSTREET LOSERS, in my ability to ABSOLUTELY CRUSH you with my obvious picks.

Disney (184.72) Two words: baby Yoda.

Roku (318.45) Have you heard about this cord cutting craze? I feel like it’s got some buzz. People love their Rokus, and this stock is going through the roof! Also, a quick look into the CEO/Founder shows an eccentric British genius with a history of inventing cool tech things.

Chipotle (1422.96) Every time I ask a friend for their top five favorite fast casual corporate chain dining experiences (and I ask this question frequently), Chipotle consistently lands in the top two, and no other chain comes close.  Sure, Chick-fil-A hangs tough in the south, and In-N-Out on the west coast, but those are regional (and one of them closes on Sunday). Also Chipotle just added a new organic Hibiscus lemonade that I like.   

Shake Shack (110.88) This is the only up and coming fast casual corporate dining chain with almost as much customer love as Chipotle had back in 2006. Plus, they added a new vegetarian burger so perhaps everyone will be happy now.

Beyond Meat (130.21) So apparently Shake Shack is about to do away with their vegetarian burger and I get it, it’s off brand. But Millennials and Gen Z are dying to do some good for the climate, and for animals, while continuing to eat food that tastes (almost) exactly like meat.

Callaway (26.14) Callaway golf just merged with Topgolf, and I only know this because every time I’ve been to a TopGolf, I see large families and friend groups looking absolutely thrilled to rack up large credit card tabs. Also my Dad keeps buying new Callaway Drivers.

Match (139.80) Match owns Hinge, Tinder, OKCupid, and about 50 other online dating sites. Everyone I know is on one of these sites, and I have a 55 year old friend who recently met his new girlfriend on Hinge. These sites are very efficient at taking your money in the name of love, and if you fall in love, that means you’re a satisfied customer…and if you don’t fall in love, that means you’re a recurring customer.

Axon (133.45) Republicans/ Democrats can’t agree on anything…EXCEPT, that police officers need more tasers and body cams. In fact, they can’t buy them enough tasers and body cams. And that’s where Axon comes in. Tasers, boom. Body cams, blam.  And evidence tracking software that’s going to solve all the crimes in the cloud before human detectives even know about them. Axon is like those three under-water kids in “Minority Report” who predict crimes in the future for Tom Cruise to stop, except instead of three children it’s a corporation you can make money off of.

Pinterest (69.60) I was trying to think how I could make money off women, and there it is, Pinterest. 

Spotify (258.68) Just getting some early Netflix vibes.

Teladoc (181.99) At one point I had two therapists and two doctors through Teladoc and previously I hadn’t seen a doctor in seven years. 

Moderna (131.61) First to the finish line on Covid vaccine, seems like they’ll be first to the finish line on other cures.

Planet Fitness (73.49) After a year of body-weight exercises and yoga with Adrienne, I’m convinced that gyms are about to get slammed. Men are ready to start grunting in front of each other again, and women are ready to wear their headphones again while continuing to ignore those men, and people of all gender are so ready to get back to the gentle sway of the elliptical, while watching soap operas.

And lastly, Bitcoin because I am stupid. (51,915.70)

Can anyone explain to me what Bitcoin is? Absolutely not. I just watched ten YouTube videos trying to explain why it’s great, and it’s never been more clear to me that the cryto-bros themselves do not understand. They sound like those potheads who talk about quantum physics, “It’s crazy man. But it’s real.”

But my hot take is, if enough coin-heads believe that Bitcoin has value… that’s really all it takes for it to have value. After all, gold is just a hunk of soft metal.  What is anyone really going to do with gold?  (Aside from, you know, expensive beautiful jewelry). But more likely, they’ll do the same thing with gold: hoard it, lose it, steal it, sell it, pawn it, or brag about it.  And unlike baseball cards in the 90s, Bitcoin has a limited supply. 

Okay, so there you have it, my eZ money portfolio.  I’ll check back in a year and compare to the best investors, as well as mutual funds, indices, robo funds.

I’m pretty excited to destroy Wallstreet with my intuitive hunches, and lack of financial understanding. But I’m also trying to stay humble about this massive future win that will certainly shock the nation.